🚨 Trade Alert and Portfolio Update | MBI Model Portfolio
Update #1
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The MBI Model Portfolio is only three weeks old, so take all of this with a pinch of salt, but it's off to a good start: up 2.3% since inception, and roughly 5% ahead of the Russell 2000.
The number I actually care about is underneath the headline: five positions are already up more than 10%, and only two are down by the same.
That’s the shape I want to see - a wide base of auditions, with the winners starting to separate themselves.
That separation is exactly what my sizing system is built to reward, which brings me to today’s update:
The new position I’ve added in the last couple of weeks
A loser I’m adding to
A winner I’m doubling down on after a flow of positive news
Before we get into these, however, here’s a refresher on how I actually build my portfolio.
The Pyramid: How Positions Earn Their Size
I build the portfolio like a pyramid.
At the base sits a wide spread of smaller positions - cheap auditions - names with a clear thesis and a near-term catalyst that haven’t yet proven anything inside the portfolio. They stay small on purpose, because at that stage I’m paying for optionality rather than backing a certainty.
As a position confirms - as the business delivers and the risk on the original idea falls - it climbs, from toehold to building position, and eventually, for the very best names, toward a top where I’m willing to concentrate real weight. That top is narrow by design: only a handful of ideas will ever deserve to sit there, and they get there by proving themselves, not because I decided on day one that they would.
Concentration, in other words, is the end state rather than the starting point.
Size is the reward a position earns by being right, and my job is simply to let capital flow toward whatever confirms while pruning the auditions that don’t.
With that in mind, the trades below should read less like three separate decisions and more like the same system working at three different stages.
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